Measles
- A highly contagious virus. Infects nine in ten non-immune people in close contact with someone who has it. 1 CDC: “If you have measles, up to 90% of the people close to you, who are not immune, will also become infected.” Pink Book: “more than 90% secondary attack rates among exposed susceptible persons in close-contact settings.” This is the attack rate among susceptible close contacts, mostly household; the risk from briefer or more distant exposure is lower. CDC. How Measles Spreads. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles.
- Spreads through the air. Coughing and sneezing send it into the air where it can linger for hours. 2 CDC: “It can spread to others through coughing and sneezing,” and “Measles can live for up to 2 hours in an airspace after an infected person leaves an area.” CDC. How Measles Spreads.
- High fever, cough, runny nose, red eyes, then a rash starting at the hairline that spreads over the whole body. 3 CDC: “High fever (may spike to more than 104°),” “Cough,” “Runny nose,” “Red, watery eyes,” then “Measles rash appears 3 to 5 days after the first symptoms. It usually begins as flat red spots that appear on the face at the hairline. They then spread downward to the neck, trunk, arms, legs, and feet.” CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications.
- A miserable week or more. Fever can go above 104°F, and children are typically sick for seven to ten days. 4 CDC: “High fever (may spike to more than 104°).” Pink Book: “The prodrome lasts 2 to 4 days” and “The measles rash is a maculopapular eruption that usually lasts 5 to 6 days.” Together, seven to ten days. CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles.
- Weakens the immune system by erasing some memory of prior infections, so kids get sick more easily for years. 5 Mina 2015: “measles has a more prolonged effect on host resistance, extending over 2 to 3 years.” Mina 2019: “Measles caused elimination of 11 to 73% of the antibody repertoire across individuals.” Petrova 2019: “immunosuppression can persist for months to years after infection, resulting in increased incidence of secondary infections.” Mina MJ, Metcalf CJE, de Swart RL, et al. Long-term measles-induced immunomodulation increases overall childhood infectious disease mortality. Science. 2015;348(6235):694–699. Mina MJ, Kula T, Leng Y, et al. Measles virus infection diminishes preexisting antibodies that offer protection from other pathogens. Science. 2019;366(6465):599–606. Petrova VN, Sawatsky B, Han AX, et al. Incomplete genetic reconstitution of B cell pools contributes to prolonged immunosuppression after measles. Sci Immunol. 2019;4(41):eaay6125.
- Spreading again in the U.S. Very rare for decades, then thousands of cases reported in 2025 and 2026. 6 CDC: “Measles was declared eliminated from the United States in 2000.” CDC counts 2,289 confirmed cases in 2025 and 3,134 in 2026 through September 3. CDC. History of Measles. CDC. Measles Cases and Outbreaks.
- The MMR vaccine provides long-lasting immunity to measles. Two doses cut the risk by about 97%. 7 CDC: “Two doses of measles vaccine are 97% (range: 67% to 100%) effective at preventing measles. One dose is 93% (range: 39% to 100%) effective at preventing measles.” Effectiveness is the reduction in risk among vaccinated people relative to unvaccinated people. Pink Book: vaccine-induced immunity “appears to be long-term and probably lifelong in most persons,” and waning “appears to occur rarely and to play only a minor role in measles transmission and outbreaks.” CDC. Measles Vaccine Recommendations. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles.
Of 10,000 children who get measles
- ~2,000 hospitalized 8 CDC: “About 1 in 5 unvaccinated people in the U.S. who get measles is hospitalized,” or 2,000 per 10,000. This rate is for all reported infections; CDC gives no rate specifically for children. Between 2001 and 2022, the overall hospitalization rate was 18%. In 2025, seven in ten of the reported measles cases were in people under 20, and the hospitalization rate was 11% overall, 18% for children under 5 and 12% for adults. “Or worse”: some of those who are hospitalized die. CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications. Mathis AD, Raines K, Filardo TD, et al. Measles Update — United States, January 1–April 17, 2025. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2025;74:232–238. CDC. Measles Cases and Outbreaks.
- ~500 pneumonia 9 CDC: “As many as 1 out of every 20 children with measles gets pneumonia,” or 500 per 10,000. “As many as” makes this an upper estimate. CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications.
- ~10 brain swelling (encephalitis) 10 CDC: “About 1 child out of every 1,000 who get measles will develop encephalitis (swelling of the brain),” or 10 per 10,000. CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications.
- ~20 deaths, most often from pneumonia 11 CDC: “Nearly 1 to 3 of every 1,000 children who become infected with measles will die from respiratory and neurologic complications,” or 10 to 30 per 10,000. CDC calls pneumonia “the most common cause of death from measles in young children.” CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications.
- ~1 death from SSPE years later 12 CDC: 7 to 11 SSPE cases per 100,000 measles cases, or 0.7 to 1.1 per 10,000, with onset that “generally develops 7 to 10 years” after infection. The National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke describes SSPE as a “slow, but persistent, viral infection” of the brain. Wendorf 2017 found higher rates for infection in early childhood: 1 in 1,367 before age five, about 7 per 10,000, and 1 in 609 under 12 months, about 16 per 10,000. We use the more conservative CDC figure; the higher estimates rest on small numbers of cases. CDC. Measles Symptoms and Complications. CDC. Chapter 7: Measles. NINDS. Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis. Wendorf KA, Winter K, Zipprich J, et al. Subacute Sclerosing Panencephalitis: The Devastating Measles Complication That Might Be More Common Than Previously Estimated. Clin Infect Dis. 2017;65(2):226–232. caused by virus persisting in the brain
* Based on CDC estimates of rates among reported cases. 13 The figures are CDC rates among reported cases, rounded to a count per 10,000. Some infections go unreported, so rates among everyone who catches measles may be somewhat lower. CDC. Measles Cases and Outbreaks. Mathis AD, Raines K, Filardo TD, et al. Measles Update — United States, January 1–April 17, 2025. MMWR Morb Mortal Wkly Rep. 2025;74:232–238.
Of 10,000 children who get the MMR vaccine
- ~3 fever seizure, no lasting harm 15 CDC: febrile seizure in “about 1 in 3,000 to 4,000 children” under seven in the 6 to 14 days after MMR, or 2.5 to 3.3 per 10,000. “Febrile seizures following MMR vaccination are rare and are not associated with any long-term effects.” CDC. Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) Vaccine Safety.
- <1 temporary low platelet count 16 CDC: immune thrombocytopenic purpura in about 1 per 40,000 vaccinated children in the six weeks after MMR, or 0.25 per 10,000. MMR “rarely causes a temporary low platelet count, which can cause a bleeding disorder that usually goes away without treatment and is not life threatening.” Pink Book: “The clinical course of these cases is usually transient and benign.” CDC. Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) Vaccine Safety. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles. can cause unusual bruising or bleeding
- ≪1 severe allergic reaction 17 Pink Book: “Immediate, anaphylactic reactions to MMR vaccine occur in 1.8 to 14.4 cases per million doses,” or 0.02 to 0.14 per 10,000. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles.
- 0 deaths 18 Death is not impossible, but it is vanishingly unlikely. CDC: measles inclusion body encephalitis “almost always happens in patients with weakened immune systems,” and “There have been three published reports of this complication happening to people who are vaccinated. In these cases, encephalitis developed between 4 and 9 months after MMR vaccination. In one case, the measles vaccine strain was identified as the cause.” Costales 2022 reports a second sequence-confirmed vaccine-strain case, fatal, after MMRV (ProQuad) in a child with leukemia. IOM 1994, on deaths after measles vaccine: “No relative risk can be calculated”; the risk is “extraordinarily low.” Two confirmed cases against the millions of doses given every year is far below one per 10,000. CDC. Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) Vaccine Safety. Institute of Medicine. Adverse Effects of Vaccines: Evidence and Causality. National Academies Press; 2011. Costales C, Sahoo MK, Huang C, et al. Vaccine-Associated Measles Encephalitis in Immunocompromised Child, California, USA. Emerg Infect Dis. 2022;28(4):906–908. Institute of Medicine. Adverse Events Associated with Childhood Vaccines: Evidence Bearing on Causality. National Academies Press; 1994. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles.
† Fever or a mild rash after the vaccine is common and short-lived. 19 Pink Book: “After MMR vaccination, 5% to 15% of susceptible persons develop a temperature of 103°F (39.4°C) or higher,” and “MMR vaccine may cause a transient rash in approximately 5% of vaccine recipients.” CDC lists “Fever” and “Mild rash” among common side effects. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles. CDC. Measles, Mumps, Rubella (MMR) Vaccine Safety.
≪1 means much less than one per 10,000. 17 Pink Book: “Immediate, anaphylactic reactions to MMR vaccine occur in 1.8 to 14.4 cases per million doses,” or 0.02 to 0.14 per 10,000. CDC. Epidemiology and Prevention of Vaccine-Preventable Diseases (Pink Book), chapter 13: Measles.